9.
Stara Planina Hold Plc uses optimally the available resource in order to reduce the impact of
the interest rate levels.
Inflation risk is related to the probability for the purchase prices of goods and services to
increase significantly which leads to lower incomes, shrinking consumers’ demand and limiting the
country's economy growth. Inflation can directly affect the real return on a given investment since
with high inflation, even high nominal incomes can appear to have a negative nominal return.
The March 2022 macroeconomic projections of the ECB’s staff foresee annual inflation of
5.1% in 2022, 2.1 % in 2023 and 1.9 % in 2024 - significantly higher than in the previous December
forecasts, especially for 2022. ECB experts' macroeconomic forecasts for March 2022 forecast
annual inflation of 5.1% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024, well above previous December
forecasts, especially for 2022. Inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected to average 2.6 % in
2022, 1.8 % in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024 which is also higher than in the December forecast. Inflation
in energy goods, which reached 31.7 % in February 2022, continues being the main reason for the
high rate of headline inflation and pushes up prices in many other sectors.
From the beginning of 2021 the companies in the Group of Stara Planina Hold Plc report a
significantly higher growth of prices (as opposed to the forecasted and reported inflation) of raw
materials and energy, which respectively affects production prices. By the end of 2021, the
accumulated growth of raw material prices for the companies in the Group compared to January
2021 in some cases reaches 60-70. The shock increase in the price of electricity for non-household
consumers from the middle of the year, the non-market mechanism for its determination, as well as
the unpredictability of the expected price growths represent a serious risk not only for the companies
in the holding's portfolio but also for the entire Bulgarian economy, including the health and social
spheres as well. Initiation and consistent implementation of sustainable policies, ensuring the
adequate functioning of the energy sector in the country, in addition to the already taken temporary
measures, are essential for both the industry and the social development of our country as a whole.
The systematic currency risk is the probability of a possible change in the currency regime of
the country (currency board) which would lead either to the devaluation of the lev or to the
appreciation of the lev against foreign currencies. According to the current legislation in the country,
the Bulgarian lev is fixed to the common European currency - euro in the ratio EUR 1 = BGN 1.95583
and the risk of depreciation of the lev against the European currency is minimal, but there is a risk
of adverse changes in the euro against other major currencies, such as the US dollar, the Swiss
franc, the British pound and others.
Given the export orientation of most of the companies in the group of Stara Planina Hold Plc,
changes in the values of currencies have a certain effect and are a risk factor for their activities.
Exchange rates affect revenues from sales abroad and the cost of deliveries of imported raw
materials. Due to the fact that these companies make their main payments in BGN and EUR and
realize the main part of their sales revenues in EUR, the impact of this risk on their activity is
significantly reduced. The management of the holding observes the movement of the exchange rates
and takes measures to avoid the negative consequences of their change.
Changes in the values of currencies have a certain effect and are a risk factor for the activity.
Exchange rates affect revenues from sales abroad and the cost of supplies of imported raw
materials. The average exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar in 2021 ranged from 1.11 to
1.22. The annual growth of the average monthly US dollar /BGN exchange rate at the end of 2021
is 7.6 % in favor of the lev.
Political risk: As of the date of preparation of this notification, the National Plan for
Reconstruction and Sustainability of the Republic of Bulgaria has already been approved by the
European Commission and should be approved by the Council of the EU within two months. Bulgaria
is expected to receive 6.3 billion euros under the European Mechanism for Reconstruction and
Sustainability to support economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Apart from the accession
of our country to the instruments for participation in the European Plan "Next Generation EU" and
the Multiannual Financial Framework of the European Union, the timely implementation of adequate
measures to ensure energy and resource security for the Bulgarian business and support the