
11.
as well as to the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine, the potential instability of other countries in the
immediate vicinity of the Balkan Peninsula, and the pressure of waves of refugees from countries in the
Middle East.
In addition to the indicated systematic risks, the activities of the companies in the group of Stara
Planina Hold Plc are related to non-systematic risks such as industry risk, concerning the state and trends
for development of a given industry as a whole and a company risk arising from the specifics of the
company. The management of Stara Planina Hold Plc does not expect significant influence from them.
Influence of the main risks and uncertainties
According to the ECB, the euro area economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of 2023 due to
the energy crisis, high uncertainty, weakening economic activity and tighter financing conditions. Under
the conditions of slowing pace of the world economy, the risks for growth are mainly for its decrease,
especially in the short term. The military conflict in Ukraine continues posing a material adverse risk to
the economy. Energy and food costs could also remain persistently higher than expected. There could
be a further slowdown in growth in the euro area if the global economy weakens more sharply than
expected.
Risks to the inflation forecast are mostly on the upside. In the short term, existing supply chain
pressures may lead to larger than expected increases in energy and food retail prices. In the medium
term, risks stem mostly from domestic factors, such as a sustained rise in inflation expectations above
the ECB's 2 % target or higher than expected wage increases. In the short term, the risk of energy supply
disruptions remains high.
According to the European Commission's Winter Economic Forecast, the increase in investment
from EU funds, especially under the Recovery and Resilience Plan, is expected to support aggregate
investment in Bulgaria in both 2023 and 2024. The Commission emphasizes that potential delays in the
implementation of the national recovery and resilience plan represent a negative risk for the growth of
investments in our country.
Under these conditions, the companies in the Group of the Stara Planina Hold Plc make serious
efforts to guarantee their security with orders also for 2023, as well as to maintain and even increase their
market positions. The companies continue their investment policies aimed at technological renewal,
digitization of processes and expansion of production capabilities with a view to increasing productivity
and quality of the manufactured products in parallel with their policies on optimizing the production
process and stimulating the persons employed in the Group.
The military conflict in Ukraine since February 2022, as well as the ongoing process of imposing
mutual sanctions between the US and the EU, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, have objectively
affected economic activity and trade relations not only in Europe, but also globally, leading to an increase
in the prices of raw materials, fuels and energy carriers in general, additional difficulties in logistics, strong
inflationary pressure. The companies in the Group of Stara planina hold Plc do not have investments in
assets related to Russia and Ukraine but some of them have established commercial relations with
companies from these countries. In the reporting year 2022, the companies did not carry out transactions
and have no receivables or liabilities to persons/entities against whom restrictive measures have been
imposed. In relation to supply chains, companies are dependent on these countries but at this stage there
are no circumstances that could endanger the activities of these companies in the group.
Factors that will continue influencing costs in 2023 as well are the market prices of raw materials
for the production, transportation of supplies, regional market price of labor, energy prices and security
of their supply. The macroeconomic development of the country, the unstable political situation, financial
policy, as well as geopolitical factors appear to be the most worrisome circumstances that will have an
impact on business in 2023 as well. The development of the military conflict in Ukraine and the effect of
the measures taken at European and national level will affect the activities of the companies in the group
and may lead to adjustments of the expected business results.
The management of the holding will continue monitoring, analyzing and making assessments of
the decisions and actions taken by the governing bodies of Bulgaria and the EU and, accordingly, of the
possible direct and indirect consequences on the activities of the companies in the group.