5.
global economy is in a state of moderate but unstable growth, characterized by a high degree of
uncertainty and structural changes in global economic and trade relations. International financial
institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, and the UN confirm that the world economy is
entering a new stage where growth remains limited, and geopolitical and fiscal risks continue to exert a
significant influence on the business climate and international markets.
Macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, uncertainty about the price and security of energy
supplies, weak demand, geopolitical tensions and economic challenges related to escalating trade
tensions continue having a significant impact on business processes and prospects for economic
development in a global perspective.
According to the ECB Economic Bulletin from December 2025, experts expect average annual real
GDP growth in the Eurozone to be 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028.
Compared to the September 2025 projections, GDP growth has been revised upwards for the entire
forecast horizon, reflecting better-than-expected data, reduced trade policy uncertainty, stronger external
demand, and lower energy commodity prices. Domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver
of growth in the Eurozone, stimulated by rising real wages and employment, amid stable labor markets
with record-low unemployment rates. The additional government spending on infrastructure and defense
announced in 2025, specifically in Germany, along with more favorable financing conditions due to the
reduction of key interest rates since June 2024, are also expected to support the domestic economy.
Regarding the external environment, although competitiveness challenges persist, including those of a
structural nature, exports are expected to accelerate in 2026.
The ECB Governing Council emphasizes the need for urgent measures to strengthen the Eurozone
and its economy within the current geopolitical context. It supports the European Commission's call for
governments to prioritize sustainable public finances, strategic investments, and growth-enhancing
structural reforms. It is of crucial importance to leverage the full potential of the Single Market.
Against this background, according to National Statistical Institute (NSI) data for 2025, Bulgaria's
trade turnover with its main trading partners from the EU and third countries has contracted for another
consecutive year. In 2025, Bulgaria's total exports amounted to BGN 83 894.5 million, representing a
3.2% decrease compared to 2024, when a decline of 0.2 % was reported, following a 6.5 % drop in 2023.
One of the reasons for this decline is the impact of the war in Ukraine on the markets. Concerningly, in
2025, the contraction was more pronounced in exports to EU countries, which are leading markets for
Bulgaria. At the same time, total imports into the country in 2025 reached BGN 105 605.1 million (at CIF
prices), or 6.1 % more than in 2024. The total foreign trade balance (FOB exports - CIF imports) for 2025
was negative, amounting to BGN 21 710.6 million. In December 2025, the total foreign trade balance
(FOB exports - CIF imports) was also negative, standing at BGN 2 909.1 million.
Also, according to National Statistical Institute data, in December 2025, the total business climate
indicator decreased by 3.1 points compared to the previous month (from 16.1 % to 13.0 %), with a decline
registered across all observed sectors – industry, construction, retail trade, and services. The composite
indicator 'business climate in industry' fell by 2.1 points (from 14.6 % to 12.5 %) as a result of the
unfavorable assessments and expectations of industrial entrepreneurs regarding the business condition
of their enterprises. Production activity is assessed as diminished, while activity expectations for the next
three months are more favorable. The uncertain economic environment, labor shortages, and insufficient
demand from abroad and domestically continue to be the main obstacles to business development.
Furthermore, according to Eurostat data, in December 2025, seasonally adjusted industrial
production decreased by 1.4 % in the Eurozone and by 0.8 % in the EU on a monthly basis. On an annual
basis, in December 2025, compared to the same month in 2024, industrial production in the EU increased
by 1.4 %, while in the Eurozone it rose by 1.2 %. The average annual industrial production for 2025,
compared to 2024, increased by 1.5 % in both the Eurozone and the EU.
On an annual basis, however, according to NSI data, industrial production in Bulgaria recorded a
6.7 % decline in December 2025, following a 9.0 % decrease in November; by this indicator, our country